After a lot of time, good news about Iraq. I do not refer to the traditional holders in electoral days since those of this Sunday - Millions of Iraqis defy bomb and rocket attacks to votes - but to the idea of that the Iraqi Government has reached the sufficient force as not to depend on a militia to finish with his enemies not of the North American troops to impose the safety.
Nir Rosen is one of the best journalists who has happened for Iraq, as I have already said one day here, and of the most critical with the occupation of Iraq. His current analysis is different from the one that appears in all the news that they accompany to the offenses of last weeks. After many conversations with Iraqis, he is thinking about appreciating a change in the attitude of the people towards his Government and in the aptitude of this one to fulfill his functions.
Iraqis on the street plows not longer scared of rival militias so much, or of being exterminated and they not longer have expert much support for the religious parties. Maliki is still perceived by many to be not very sectarian and not very religious, and resides of to "nationalist." Another thing people would notice if they focused on "the street" is that the militias plows finished, the Awakening Groups/SOIs plows finished, so violence is limited to assassinations with silencers and sticky bombs and the occasional spectacular terrorist attack - all manageable and not strategically important, even if tragic. Politicians might be talking the sectarian talk but Iraqis have grown very cynical.
The safety keeps on being the biggest worry of the Iraqis, but at low levels that two years ago.
Rosen believes that the domain chií is insured. The force of the numbers does not leave place to doubts. Maliki has turned into the national letter. The effectiveness of his Government in last three years guarantees his position. He insured himself this identity when he negotiated from a force position the agreement on the presence of the North American troops in the last months of the Administration of Bush.
When Obama came to the power, the North American press did not lose time in wondering up to where the new president would dare to come in the process of retreat of the troops. Always thinking that any thing that should happen in Washington is more important that what it happens in the rest of the world, they did not know that the letters of the game were already on the table. Maliki insured himself his legitimacy imposing a few period that, on the other hand, it was not also interesting to Obama to be late.
Rosen affirms that the suníes are neutralized politically. The elimination of a high number of candidates suníes for his supposed relation with the Baas had provoked in another time an authentic stir. Now it has not been like that. The ancient tribal militias suníes that were allied by the North American Army to face the groups yihadistas have been disappearing in the last years. The promises that received from Washington have not been fulfilled, because the Government of Maliki never had the minor intention of respecting them. Sometimes, it seemed that these militias could take the weapon again against the Government, and return to the rebellion from which in fact they were coming, but this possibility never went so far as to turn into a reality.
The end of the sectarian Iraq does not mean that the political conciliation between suníes and chiíes is a fact. Of entry, it stays without solving the relation of the Kurds with the new Iraqi State and the question of the city of Kirkuk. In contrast to the previous legislative elections, yes there will be a wide presence of parties suníes that will be able to have an excellent role in the game of alliances that takes place in the Parliament.
Juan Cole raises that the associates chiíes that Maliki will need to govern will demand from him that it should do honor to his nationalistic credentials and should accelerate the North American retreat. These associates are the movement of To The Sáder and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. The latter party already does not take Abd as a leader to the-Aziz To The Hakim (he died for a cancer) and his son has defended a position more decided against the USA. Maliki is not in the hurry because the North Americans are already irrelevant in the Iraqi political game. The parties that will govern after these elections have to pay more attention to his relations with Teheran than with Washington.
It is not anything that many mass media of the USA realize still very well.
They say some chronicles that a passion has not been appreciated in the votings seemed to that of 2005. That is good. One year after these elections, there broke loose a brutal civil war that provoked a butcher's shop, including the ethnic purge of a part of Baghdad. It is necessary to remember an idea repeated often and ignored some others. The elections are not a miraculous remedy which result is always an increase of the democracy. If there is no political process behind that endorses them, only they serve to postpone the solution.
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